Bracketology 02.10.26

RECAP oF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY

• Top teams are finally falling! Arizona, Duke, UConn, and Illinois all have fallen since the last bracket update. Despite all of this, the top remains intact with Michigan moving ahead of Duke in the pecking order. Houston is making a strong case to be an eventual 1-seed. They have outperformed UConn according to the power rankings (POM, Torvik, BPI). However, the Huskies still own the stronger resume with their road win at Kansas, and neutral-court heavyweight wins over Illinois, Florida, and BYU.

• The Gators destroyed Texas A&M on the road last Saturday. As a result, Florida is now a solid 3-seed and rising. The Vanderbilt Commodores took a bad home loss to Oklahoma and are now barely holding on to a 4-seed.

• St. John’s is solidly a projected 5-seed at this juncture following its key win over UConn and hanging on to finally beat Xavier on Monday.

• Clemson’s great week on the West Coast has the Tigers back up to a 6-seed. Fellow ACC members, Louisville, join them. The Cardinals put on a clinic over NC State on Monday in a flat-out demolition of a win.

• UCF’s loss to Cincinnati knocks the Knights pretty far down the list. The Knights had a NET of 44 as of Monday, and its KenPom rank is now at 50th. Not a great situation for seeding, but UCF making the dance would still make folks in Orlando rejoice. They get four of the final seven Big 12 games at home. Only two of the seven games (at BYU and hosting Oklahoma State) are against tournament-level teams at the moment.

• The bubble is quite fluid, with several teams presenting incomplete resumes. Miami might be the most interesting right now. They have done well on the road, beating Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and Syracuse as all are Top 90 road wins, but none of them are forecasted tournament teams. The Canes also have the home loss to Cal, which doesn’t bode well if any of the voters compare the two side-by-side. Fortunately, Miami has a gauntlet of a finish coming. Hosting UNC on Tuesday and traveling to NC State on Saturday to initiate the ultra-competitive festivities.

• Conference champs are mostly steady. The Temple Owls are tied in the loss column with Tulsa and South Florida atop the American Conference. Temple’s H2H win over USF has them getting the tiebreaker today. USF, of course, swept Tulsa. Temple and Tulsa do not meet until the season finale. Hawai’i benefitted from UC Irvine’s loss to UC Santa Barbara. Welcome back, Rainbow Warriors. Morgan State’s six-game win streak has the Bears making their first bracket appearance today.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: San Diego State, California, New Mexico, Ohio State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, TCU, VCU, Boise State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.06.2026

MID-WEEK RECAP

• Michigan State’s loss at Minnesota, Gonzaga’s meteoric loss at Portland, combined with Kansas earning a stunning road win at Texas Tech, meant that a full re-evaluation of the 3-seeds and beyond was required forensics.

• Tennessee was able to win out on the evaluation vs. Texas Tech for the final four-seed slot. The Vols have twice as many wins vs. the field as the Red Raiders, and now have an edge in performance measurements.

• St. John’s earned the final five-seed in a narrow comparison with Arkansas, North Carolina, and Saint Louis. The Johnnies are lacking an elite-level win, but have been dominant in enough road games. SJU is also 6-0 in true road games vs. the top two Quadrants.

• NC State - The Wolfpack are not only establishing themselves as a true NCAAT team, but the Pack are also fast risers. Road wins at SMU and at Clemson are quality headliners at the top of the resume. NC State did a nice job of scheduling to own 11 top-two Quadrant wins. The Pack’s collection of these 11 wins is more than any team below Vandy on the board.

• Utah State’s statement road win at New Mexico has them back on the rise. USU is winning comps over Villanova, UCF, and others today to be a Top 31 selection on the Big Board

• We welcome Oklahoma State to the projected field. The Cowboys’ wins over BYU, UCF, and Texas A&M all came at home, but they also own a Q2 road win at Utah to help supplement. The NCAA WAB tool is a fan as well, now 39th there.

• Seton Hall’s convincing loss at Villanova punts the Pirates well outside of the cut-line.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Today is Episode #4 of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Come hear about where the bracket stands every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, San Diego State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Texas, VCU, Seton Hall, West Virginia

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.02.2026

Another impactful weekend has come and gone. Due to time constraints and preparation for live coverage of McNeese-Stephen F. Austin tonight, I will reserve my overall observations for another time.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: George Mason, Oklahoma State, Texas, VCU

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER or BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.30.26

MID-WEEK RISERS AND FALLERS

• Michigan solidified its place as a top-seed for now with a narrow home win over shorthanded Nebraska, who was without Rienk Mast. The Cornhuskers impressed so much that they do not move from the best available 2-seed option. Another showdown for Nebraska this Sunday, rematching Illinois, who is a fellow 2-seed.

• Houston handled road business at TCU. The comp between UH and Gonzaga was a tight one for the final 2-seed on Monday. This result made it more clear that the Cougars deserve the nod. GU has not played in anticipation for this weekend’s primetime matchup with Saint Mary’s. But while the Bulldogs rest, teams like Iowa State and Vanderbilt had dominant wins. It’s a slippery slope for Gonzaga at the top of the board because so much of their seed list position is predicated on perceived dominance, and they’ll need to reflect that in the power numbers (Torvik, POM, BPI).

• The Vols have another quality road win under its belt, thanks to the OT win at Georgia earlier this week. The strength of the Tennessee wins have now earned them a 5-seed and bumped North Carolina to the 6-seed line.

• Auburn’s four-game win streak has accumulated. The Tigers strength continues to build and they took the final 6-seed spot today with a better resume than Louisville, who slipped to a 7-seed.

• Texas lost to Auburn, and there is no more wiggle room to include the Longhorns at this time. They were ultimately replaced by another big brand who barely have enough credentials to be selected, that would be Indiana. The Hoosiers earned its first NCAA-level win over Purdue earlier this week. They nipped out Santa Clara in a tight comparison for the final spot today.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Today is Episode #2 of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Check us out every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Santa Clara, Missouri, George Mason, Seton Hall

NEXT TEAMS OUT: California, Stanford, Texas, Oklahoma State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.26.26

WEEKEND RECAP

• Top five teams in the land have been quite elite. The issue for today is that I can only project four of them to be top-seeds. The debate rages on between Michigan or Nebraska. The Wolverines are no longer #1 in either the NET or POM, but they are still clearly the second-most powerful squad per the predictive measures. Nebraska is hammering the committee with more quality wins. The win at Illinois is platinum-level good after the Illini stole the show and won at Purdue this past weekend. But, I found the exercise to be quite unconvincing, so I kept Michigan as the last top seed today. BTW- look who plays on Tuesday Night: Huskers at Wolverines!

• The teams in the seed list from six to 14 are a cut above the next group. A complete re-evaluation was required work to determine how high Illinois, Michigan State, and Texas Tech should climb. On the flipside where does Houston, Purdue, Iowa State, BYU slot in? That was a fun re-grouping. By the time I made it to the 15th-best team (Kansas), there was a clear drop-off in resume quality.

• From 16 to 33, seeding can arguably get messy. UCF for example, stellar resume, shaky power numbers. Saint Louis has a stellar set of power numbers, but no data that helps them from a resume perspective sans the lone loss on the season. The big results were Tennessee’s road win at Bama, North Carolina’s road win at Virginia, and Auburn’s loud victory at Florida.

• The 34 to 46 group are all within a bad result or two of being out. USC helped itself out tremendously by winning at Wisconsin on Sunday to escape Crown Tournament danger. N.C. State’s win earlier last week at Clemson really got the Pack on the right side of the bracket. Utah State stopped the bleeding by winning on the road at Colorado State. Texas pounded Georgia, and despite the Horns have a losing record in its biggest opportunities, I am taking my 2025 selection learnings and reconfiguring to include Texas today. Virginia Tech missed out on a big chance by losing at Louisville, and the Hokies are right on the cliff now.

• Bubble gainers also included Missouri, California, TCU, and Butler. Those four are making strides toward getting in, but aren’t quite there yet in terms of total body of work. George Mason, Seton Hall, Baylor, and LSU took losses that it will need some work to make up for.

• Conference races got juicy over the weekend! Texas A&M took over the SEC lead by themselves at 6-1. Bucky Ball in Texas has been unstoppable in January. Houston’s loss to Texas Tech, hands the Big 12 race solely to Arizona for now. Cats are at BYU in a Monday showdown coming up. Belmont is now tied with Murray State for the lead in the Valley after the Racers fell to UNI on the road. The two have not met this season, Bruins have a stronger SOR and will replace Murray State in today’s projection. South Florida is back as the American rep. Bulls have wins over Tulsa and FAU, who project as USF Bulls’ primary threats in the AAC five-way tie for first place at two losses each. UT Arlington capitalized on another Utah Valley loss to become the WAC rep today.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Today is the season debut of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness.

The best time of year is almost here... 🔥

Fielding The 68 returns next Monday at 5pm ET 👀

Bracketology is BACK!! 🍿 pic.twitter.com/4bawTzjJjQ

— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) January 23, 2026

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, California, George Mason, Stanford

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Santa Clara, TCU, Seton Hall, Butler

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER/X & BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8